Since you are attempting to make a profit off the intellectual property of another person or entity, you would need a license - otherwise it becomes copyright/trademark infringement.

It's actually a copyright infringement even if you don't try to make a profit. You can be sued (in theory) for up to $150,000 for each video or character being ripped off. 17 USC § 504. The good news is that they typically have "bigger fish to fry", such as those mass-producing counterfeit figurines.

If one were to create a bakery styled store that's in themes of video games and movies, would they need the individual licenses for them or could they make a master chief helmet cake and sell it?